CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1   BACKGROUND OF STUDY

Climate change is a serious concern today, and researchers are affianced in understanding its impact on growth and yield of crops, and also identifying suitable management options to sustain the crop productivity under the climate change scenarios. The variability of climatic factors brings fluctuations on crop yields (Ozkan and Akcaoz, 2002). According to IPCC climate change is any

change in climate over time,  whether or not because of natural variability or as a results of act.

Studies of climate change impacts on agriculture initially focused on rising CO2 levels (Curry et al., 1990), but later it was reported that changes in temperature, radiation and precipitation etc need to be studied to evaluate the impacts of climate change, beyond CO2 increase, on crops (Pielke et al., 2002).

Recently, abiotic stresses such as drought and heat are more frequent in almost all parts of the world. So, future farming and food system will have to be better adapted to a range of biotic and abiotic stresses to cope with the direct and indirect consequences of a progressively changing climate.

Considerable work has been carried out the effects of climate on agriculture (Parry and Carter, 1989; Kane et al., 1992; Darwin et al., 1995; Smith and Skinner, 2002). Changes in regional climate and agricultural production had affected all the countries. Studies indicated that during the cropping season weather parameters strongly influenced the crop growth and it accounted for 2/3rd (67%) of the variation in productivity while other factors including soil and nutrient management accounts for 1/3rd (33%).

The influence of weather is in fact operative even before the crop is sown, as the moisture availability and thermal regime of the seed zone determine the date of sowing and the appropriate crop genotype to be sown. The weather assumes greater importance in rainfed regions where moisture regime during the cropping season is highly variable and is strongly dependent on the quantum and distribution of rainfall vis-a–vis soil water holding capacity and water release characteristics.

Even in irrigated agriculture where manipulation of moisture regime influence the choice of crops, cropping patterns and optimum dates of sowing for achieving better crop yields. In addition weather abnormalities like flood, drought, frost, high temperature etc. will lead to natural disasters affecting agricultural productivity and national food security.

Therefore, understanding the climatic conditions of the country and also the impacts of weather on crops will help to devise the suitable management practices for taking advantage of the favourable weather conditions and avoiding risks due to climatic factors for obtaining optimum and suitable agricultural productivity.

1.2   STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Climate is one of the most important factors considered by the mankind throughout his history. The reason is the important role of climatic elements on human life and especially on agricultural products there are concerns about climatic changes caused by human activities. Because, climate changes have impacts on agricultural productions and in the future, the climate changes will be considered as one of the influential factors of agricultural production.  The phenomenon of drought and wet years has been passed on from one generation to the next for many years. In today's life, in spite of all the advancements of human in technology, production and modification of all agricultural crops, the weather is still among the factors that have remained largely uncontrollable. Infection of plants to pests and diseases is also subject to weather conditions. The plant has also critical steps toward climate factors such as cold, heat, humidity, wind, etc. Finally, several researches have been carried out on the effect of weather condition on farming and farm produce but not even single research has been carried out on the predictive analytics for favourable crops based on weather atmosphere condition.

1.3   AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

        The main aim of the study is to carry out a predictive analytics for favourable crops based on weather atmosphere condition. Other specific objectives of the study include;

1. to determine the influence of climatic factors on crop productivity.
2. to determine the factors affecting atmospheric condition of weather and its influence on  crops.
3. to determine the extent to which atmospheric condition affects agricultural productivity.
4. to proffer possible solutions to the problems.
   1. RESEARCH QUESTIONS               

1      What is the influence of climatic factors on crop productivity?

2      What are the factors affecting atmospheric condition of weather and its influence on crops?

3      What is the extent to which atmospheric condition affects agricultural productivity?

4      What are the possible solutions to the problem?

1.5   STATEMENT OF RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

H0:   Weather atmospheric condition has no significant effect on favourable crops.

H1:      Weather atmospheric condition has a significant effect on favourable crops.

1.6   SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

        The study on the predictive analytics for favourable crops based on weather condition will be of immense benefit in the sense that it will educate famers on the right crops to be cultivated depending on the weather condition that is favourable. It will also educate them on the on how to understand the time and season of plantation. Finally, the study will contribute to the body of existing literature and knowledge to this field of study and basis for further research.

1.7   SCOPE OF STUDY

        The study on the predictive analytics for favourable crops is limited to weather atmosphere condition.

1.8   LIMITATION OF STUDY

Financial constraint- Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire and interview).

Time constraint- The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.

1.9   DEFINITION OF TERMS

Predictive       Relating to or having the effect of predicting an event or result.

Analytics         Is the discovery, interpretation, and communication of meaningful patterns in data; and the process of applying those patterns towards effective decision making.

Favourable      To the advantage of someone or something.

Crops Is a plant product that can be grown and harvested extensively for profit or subsistence.

Weather  Is the state of the atmosphere, describing for example the degree to which it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy. Weather refers to day-to-day temperature and precipitation activity

Atmosphere    Is a layer or a set of layers of gases surrounding a planet or other material body that is held in place by the gravity of that body. 

Condition        The state of something with regard to its appearance, quality, or working order.