CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY

Elections in to any political office are always characterized with numerous activities, starting from the intra-party to inter-party level. There are various political strategies that contestants employ to emerge as their party’s candidate, before ultimately contesting against candidates from other parties in a general election. These political strategies include lobbying, personal contacts, political rallies and campaign. However, these strategies have now become less effective for mobilizing support and woo voters for election (Opeibi 2006). The objectives of this paper, therefore, are to examine the effectiveness of political advertising on Nigerian electorates and also consider problems associated with negative political advertising. Political parties in Nigeria are either Cadre or Elite Parties. According to Omodia (2009), elites could be political, bureaucratic, religious, military and traditional. These elites are not mutually exclusive and can fall within more than a classification. For example a military ruler could be political elite during military regime and after retirement become a traditional ruler thus becoming traditional elite (Omodia 2009).

Alawode and Adesanya described political rally as a form of campaign used by political candidates to reach and influence voters. It is a subset of advertising described by Arens as a structured and composed non-personal communication of information usually paid for and usually persuasive in nature, about products, services and ideas by identified sponsors, through various mass media.

In the context of Kayode, political advertising requires that mass communication be focused, targeted, and managed when reaching out to large audience groups. It can include several months’ mediums and span several months over the course of a political campaign. Unlike the campaigns of the past, advances in media technology have streamlined the process, giving candidates more options to reach even larger groups of constituents with very little physical effort.

Political behaviour is the interaction among the political actors such as society, gouvernment, and other institutions in political process. At least, in the political process there is the rule, the oppose and the obey, and the affecting political process, such as in making, implementing and enforcement the policy. Political behaviour can be formulated as activities which related to the process of making and implementing political decision.

In a democratic society where candidates propose policy positions to win votes, it is important to understand how sensitive (or not) citizens’ voting behaviors are to these positions. More specifically, scholars are interested in learning how vital each individual policy is to citizens when they consider whom to vote for in elections.1 This research agenda often employs the spatial or proximity voting model (Hotelling, 1929; Black, 1948; Downs, 1957; Davis, Hinich, and Ordeshook, 1970) that posits that voters hold preferred positions for different policies and then select candidates whose positions are closest to them. When multiple issues are being considered, the relative importance of these policies is essential in addition to the distances to the candidates. To date, the general consensus among the scholars (e.g., Niemi and Bartels, 1985; Grynaviski and Corrigan, 2006; Leeper and Robison, 2018) suggests that policy importance levels reported by respondents have a minimal bearing on voters’ evaluations of candidates and their vote choice. This lack of an effect on issue importance in previous studies is somewhat surprising, we argue, for several reasons. First, citizens are more likely to frequently think of issues that are important to them, less likely to oscillate in their opinions on those issues over time, and more likely to form presidential candidate preferences on the basis of those opinions (Krosnick, 1990; Lavine, Borgida and Sullivan, 2000; Lecheler, de Vreese and Slothuus, 2009). Second, citizens are more likely to seek out additional information about political issues they deem important and are more likely to learn where candidates stand on those issues (Converse, 1964; Holbrook et al., 2005; Iyengar et al., 2008; Bolsen and Leeper, 2013; Henderson, 2014). Third, citizens are more likely to engage in political participation when issues that are important to them are at stake (Price et al., 2006; Holbrook et al., 2016). In short, strong empirical support from related studies leads us to expect that issue importance enhances proximity voting.

However, political rally has become a relevant niche of advertising in the contemporary political terrain of Nigeria. This is not unconnected with its usefulness as a veritable means of making the electorates aware of candidates and manifestoes of political parties. Political rally has become an integral part of politics in Nigeria to the extent that electorates sometimes weigh the seriousness of candidates and political parties against the background of the level and pattern of advertising employed. Underscoring the relevance of political rally in the current Nigerian political dispensation Alawode and Adesanya noted that political rally is central to the realization of political socialization and mobilization.

This re-echoes an earlier assertion by a former President of the United States of America, Richard Nixon that political rally or advertising is to politics what bumper stickers are to philosophy." It is not gainsaying that this assertion is relevant to current political practices in Nigeria. In Nigeria, advertising and public relations are the two most relevant of the promotional mix elements in political rally. This was echoed by Ansolabehere and Iyenga who argued that political rally has become a veritable tool for selling candidates of political parties during campaigns. Similarly, Kaid stressed that advertisng and rally messages do influence public perception of candidates.

Nigeria runs a democratic system of electing public offices into elective posts. This gives many contestants ample avenue to make themselves available for public consideration With over 50 political parties in Nigeria and the need to reach the people of diverse geographical and cultural peculiarities many politicians and political parties are left with no other option than maximizing the strength of the mass media in reaching out to the people.

Consequently, persuasive messages are designed to highlight parties’ manifestoes and showcase their candidates for the people to exercise their franchise in their favor. The tilt towards using the mass media for political communication might not be unconnected with the limitations of interpersonal communication in a diverse terrain like Nigeria. Thus, it is not gainsaying that in modern times political rally is one of the several ways politicians and political parties mobilize the electorates. Political rally can be done can be done in several ways, such as television programmes, radio, newspapers and display of candidate’s portraits, with several promising and persuasive inscription on the billboard, magazines and even the new media of communication.  Part of the basic objectives of political advertising and rally is to gain attention of the electorates and for this reason, political advertising and rally involves orthodox strategies to achieve its aim. Edegoh, et al.  Submitted that Nigeria witnessed an unprecedented increase in the number and style of political rally in the national and state election held in 2011. Several media of political advertising were employed during the electioneering campaigns. Notable of these media include radio, television, Internet, newspapers, magazines, billboards, posters and others. Despite the finances and experts services that politicians and political parties employ in designing persuasive messages and disseminating them via multiple media platforms the influence of political rally on voters' behaviour calls for empirical inquiry.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

There are various means by which politicians use in creating awareness on their intention to run for a particular political positions. They also use several mediums to get people to support them and believe in their political ideology with promising manifestoes. However, it is important for politicians to understand that there are more advertising means that are intimate and get closer to the people and of such is rally which has shown a great effect on the voting behavior of the people.

However, over the years there have been several studies on other means of creating political awareness by researchers but there is no study particularly carried out on the effect of political rally on voters’ behavior; hence, what necessitated this study.

1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The main aim of the study is the effect of political rally on voters behavior. Other specific objectives include:

1. to determine the relationship between political rally and voting behavior in 2015 presidential election in Nigeria.

2. to examine the effect of political rally on voting behavior in 2015 presidential election in Nigeria.

3. to identify factors that influenced the voting behavior of people during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria.

4. to ascertain the importance of political rally on voters behavior in 2015 presidential election in Nigeria.

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTION

1. What is the relationship between political rally and voting behavior in 2015 presidential election in Nigeria?

2. What is the effect of political rally on voting behavior in 2015 presidential election in Nigeria?

3. What factors that influenced the voting behavior of people during the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria?

4. What is the importance of political rally on voters’ behavior of 2015 presidential election in Nigeria?

1.5 STATEMENT OF RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

1. H0: political rally has no significant effect on voters’ behavior in 2015 presidential election.

2. H1: political rally has significant effect on voters’ behavior in 2015 presidential election.

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

The findings of this study will be beneficial to political parties and politicians. It will serve as an enlightening tool to the effect political rally has on voters’ behavior. They will be aware on how to get supporters as well as what to do to convince the electorates and improve on their voting behavior.

The study will contribute to existing literature on the effect of political rally on voters’ behavior as well as serve as a research tool for further research.

1.7 SCOPE OF STUDY

The scope of study will cover the effect of political rally on voters behavior (a case study of 2015 presidential election)

1.8 LIMITATION OF STUDY

1. Financial constraint- Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire, and interview).

2. Time constraint- The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.

1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS

Effect: a change which is a result or consequence of an action or other cause.

Political rally: a political rally, a political demonstration of support or protest, march, or parade.

Voters’ behavior: Voting behavior is a form of electoral behavior. Understanding voters' behavior can explain how and why decisions were made either by public decision-makers, which has been a central concern for political scientists, or by the electorate.

Election: An election is a way people can choose their candidate or their preferences in a representative democracy or other form of government. A formal and organized choice by vote of a person for a political office or other position.